Analysts of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) estimate that supplies from Africa, LNG and pipelines may replace up to 38% of Russian gas supplies to the European Union in the future. The Institute’s experts also recommend investing in renewable energy.

The list of potential African suppliers considered by the European Commission includes Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Nigeria, the Republic of Congo and Senegal.

In the latest issue of “Economy weekly PIE”, the Institute’s analysts noted that EU countries are increasingly competing for limited resources of blue gas – for example, Spain and Italy (the second-largest importer of Russian gas in Europe) negotiate gas supplies from Algeria on their own.

According to PIE, supplies from Africa could contribute to diversification using LNG (50 billion m3) and transport via gas pipelines (10 billion m3), such as Transmed, Medgaz and Greenstream, and in the future the Trans-Saharan Nigal gas pipeline, which is scheduled to open in 2027. In 2021, 18.7% of the gas imported by the EU was provided from the African continent.

By 2040, African countries can produce up to 470 billion m3 of gas annually. This would mean a twofold increase in the current production, amounting to approx. 235 bcm according to OPEC estimates. Experts admitted that the real availability of the raw material is limited by long-term contracts that bind its suppliers for years. According to PIE, alternatives to a simple change in the direction of gas imports should be considered. Diversification of sources should be supported by structural investments in green energy.

Chile, a country that earlier was heavily dependent on gas imports from Argentina, was indicated as an example of a successful diversification of gas supply sources and energy transformation. From 2006-to 2010, Chile invested in two regasification terminals, with a total capacity larger over 80% than the Polish gas terminal in Świnoujście. This allows Chile to import gas from the USA, Equatorial Guinea, Australia and Trinidad and Tobago.

In addition, Chile used energy from LNG to build, from 2010-to 2021, renewable energy power plants with a total of 8.5 GW of new capacity. Thus, the power coming from renewable energy in the Chilean energy sector increased by 138%. In total, Chile covers 43.5% of its energy demand precisely from renewable sources.

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