The rating agency Fitch has maintained Poland’s existing rating at A-/F1. The rating was maintained for both long- and short-term foreign currency liabilities and long- and short-term domestic currency liabilities. According to the agency, the rating outlook remains stable.

In a press release, Fitch points to a diversified economy, a solid macroeconomic framework based on European Union membership, as well as an improving foreign trade balance and a slightly lower level of public debt compared to similarly rated countries. Fitch also notes a lower level of government revenue (relative to other A-rated countries), as well as higher inflation volatility.

According to Fitch’s revised forecasts, Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be 0.4 % in 2023, then accelerate to 2.4 % in 2024. The medium-term outlook is favourable: Fitch forecasts GDP growth of 3.2 % in 2025 and beyond. This marks a convergence of forecasts with the projected development of the rest of the European Union. According to the agency, investment dynamics can be expected to accelerate in the coming years, driven by cooperation with neighbouring countries and EU funds.

As the main difficulty, Fitch points to unfavourable demographic changes, but they will be somewhat offset by rising productivity and capital growth. A rating downgrade is possible in the event of a sharp increase in public debt due to the lack of effective steps to reduce the budget deficit.

Further risk factors are a significant reduction in economic growth in the medium term and a persistent deterioration in the foreign trade balance, for example due to worsening competitiveness or sustained high levels of inflation.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński