The GDP growth rate in 2022 will be maintained above 4%. Average annual inflation will be the highest since the end of the 20th century and will amount to 7.6%. The central bank will significantly raise interest rates with the central bank’s main interest rate at 3.5% at the end of the year – these are the forecasts for the Polish economy in 2022 collected by Business Insider Polska as part of the BIndicators project.

BIndicators are forecasts collected by Business Insider Polska among commercial banks, financial institutions and think tanks. Economic scenarios were presented by twelve think tanks.

The rebound after the pandemic recession in Poland was one of the fastest in Europe. We recovered our losses in the first half of the year when GDP returned to the level recorded before the emergence of COVID-19. The surveyed experts predict that last year the Polish economy grew by 5.5%, 2.5% each recession in 2020

According to Business Insider Polska, 2022 is to pass with still solid growth, and experts see it at the level of approx. 4.5%. Optimists assume that the growth dynamics may exceed 5%, and even in the worst-case scenario, the growth rate should not be lower than 4%.

Analysts predict that investments will grow by 6.8% this year. Much will depend on public investments, which should be stimulated by the billions of euros that will flow to Poland from the new EU budget perspective for 2021-2027. Economists are convinced that it will finally be possible to unlock the money from the National Reconstruction Plan, which the European Union is yet to approve.

According to the surveyed centers, the margin of uncertainty regarding household spending this year is large. Private consumption is expected to increase from 3.6%, up to 6.8%.

-We reiterate our assessment that private consumption will be the main driver of GDP growth in 2022, although in the face of increased inflation, especially in the sector of ​​basic necessity goods, our optimism about consumption has decreased – write analysts of PKO BP bank.

The level of inflation in Poland provokes the most emotions at the beginning of the year. In this regard, the surveyed economists predict that the average annual inflation rate will be 7.6% and will be about 2.5% higher than in 2021. Some economists believe that on average consumer prices will increase by over 8% in 2022.

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