Moody’s Ratings forecasts Poland’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.8 % in 2024 followed by a further acceleration to 3.5 % in 2025. GDP growth is forecast to reach an average of 3 % per year between 2026 and 2029.

“Moody’s expects the first payment of €6.3 billion (after €5 billion pre-funding in December) under the Reconstruction and Resilience Facility (RRF) in April, with total disbursements reaching around €17 billion in 2024 and a further increase to around €20 billion in 2025 and 2026.

Combined with traditional European Union (EU) budget funds, inflows could reach 3 % of GDP per year between 2025 and 2026.

The agency has maintained Poland’s long-term unsecured senior and issuer ratings at A2. At the same time, the ratings for the unsecured senior foreign currency bonds and medium-term notes (MTNs) have been maintained at (P)A2 and the short-term ratings at Prime-1 (P-1). The outlook remains stable.

“The A2 ratings are based on a very strong economic and fiscal position, which Moody’s expects to be maintained, and strong institutions, including the growing strength of civil society and the judiciary. In particular, the unlocking of European Union funds will support GDP growth at solid levels”, asses the agency. The A2 rating reflects Poland’s heightened vulnerability to geopolitical events in light of Russia’s war with Ukraine.

The stable outlook is supported by a significant improvement in relations with the EU since the change of government in December 2023. However, given the antagonistic relationship between President Duda and Prime Minister Tusk’s government, Moody’s expects only limited progress on reforms to fully restore the independence of the judiciary at least until the presidential elections in mid-2025.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński