The central forecast of the dynamics of the Gross Domestic Product, conducted by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) by 25 experts in the winter round of the NBP Macroeconomic Survey (AM), has assumed growth of 5.4% in 2021, followed by 4.3%. in 2022 and by 4% in 2023.

According to the Survey experts’ forecasts, the PLN exchange rate against the euro will amount to approximately 4.53 in 2022 and approximately 4.44 in 2023. Experts also expect a slight drop in the price of a barrel of oil (Brent) to USD 74 in 2022 and USD 71 in 2023.

The supplementary forecasts collected in the winter round of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) indicate that the domestic unemployment rate will gradually decrease from 5.9% in 2021 to 5.2% in 2022 and 4.8% in 2023. NBP also predicts that after an increase in salaries by 8.5% in 2021, in the following years, the wage growth rate will amount to 8.1% (2022) and 7.3% (2023).

The NBP Macroeconomic Survey is conducted four times a year: in the last two weeks of March, June, September and December. The winter round in 2021 lasted from December 16, 2021, to January 3, 2022. 25 experts representing financial institutions, research and analysis centers, a trade union and business organizations participated in the survey.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński