The Central Statistical Office informed that the prices of consumer goods and services in April 2022 increased year-on-year by 12.3%, and compared to the previous month, prices increased by 2.0%. However, the finance ministry claims that inflation will be single-digit this year.

“The latest forecasts show that the average annual inflation this year will be single-digit, at the level of 9.1%, and next year at the level of 7.8%, 4.8% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025”, said Deputy Minister of Finance Sebastian Skuza.

Deputy Finance Minister Artur Soboń said that “With no war shock, nor the aggression against Ukraine, we would have inflation at the level of 6-7%.”

“Inflation is indeed record-breaking all over the world. This is the highest inflation in 40 years in the United States, in 30 years in Europe. In Poland it is the highest since 1998”, said Soboń, but stressed that the first quarter of this year is the highest economic growth in Poland ever. We have a fast-paced economy, which was overlapped by the shock factors in the form of war, hence inflation”, he added.

“The inflation rate in Poland is currently rising at an alarming rate, mainly because we have to pay more and more for fuels, which Russia still exports, and for food. The weakening of the Polish currency, which is very sensitive and unstable in times of uncertainty or crises on global markets, also contributes to it”, explains Bartosz Sawicki, a financial analyst at Cinkciarz.pl.

In his opinion, prices may increase at an increasing pace for a few more months, exceeding the peak level of 14%. Only in the third quarter of this year, in the dynamics readings, a very slow and arduous decline can be expected. Then it will also be possible to announce the end of the interest rate hikes period.

Adrian Andrzejewski