Polish Trade and Distribution Organization in cooperation with the Institute of Economics and Finance of the Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University (UKSW) in Warsaw and the World Economy Center (CGŚ) UKSW under the supervision of Prof. Konrad Raczkowski, a director of CGŚ UKSW, prepared the report “Polish trade in the face of economic and geopolitical changes”.

The report states that Poland will be impacted most by the uncertainty and reality of inflation, resulting primarily from the increase in energy prices, and the Russian war in Ukraine.

The authors of the publication also prepared recommendations for the retail industry.

In their opinion, Polish trade is entering a new model of economic growth, where the use of surplus labour as a production factor will be more and more difficult and burdened with greater costs.

The report states that the retail sector in Poland is the third largest sector of the Polish economy. In 2020, approx. 17.4% of gross value added was produced there, while the wider sectoral volumes of trade significantly exceed 20% of GDP.

Russia’s war with Ukraine and the increase in agricultural production costs led to the global food crisis, where 38 countries are on the brink of starvation. The report notes that “simultaneously introduced government control over food exports in several dozen countries will deepen the food crisis, becoming a catalyst for inflation, impoverishment of society and attempts to create a new balance of power in the global economy”.

The Polish trade will also be influenced by “China’s economic war with many countries in the world and the drive to take control of the entire ocean trade”, which will deepen the shortage of Chinese exports and may amount to USD 140 billion.

Finally, the report expresses concerns about the effectiveness of the main instrument of monetary policy, namely interest rates. Inflation dynamics will remain under strong pressure from government aid and welfare spending, which, without a downward correction, will deprive the NBP and the Monetary Policy Council of the possibility of effective action.

Adrian Andrzejewski order