According to the report of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) “Situation in the credit market”, Polish banks are afraid of a further decline in the activity in the credit market in the second quarter; they predict a tightening of the standards of granting loans to enterprises and households.
Most banks expect it in the case of housing loans. Bankers also expect a large drop in demand, with the exception of the segment of short-term loans to large enterprises. According to a survey conducted by the National Bank of Poland among 23 banks, activity in the credit market in the first quarter of 2022 was significantly limited by Russia’s attack on Ukraine and its negative economic and social effects.
Banks tightened the standards of granting all types of loans and recorded a decline in demand in most segments of the loan market, except for short-term loans for large enterprises and long-term loans for SMEs. The second and most frequently indicated reason for the tightening of the lending policy was the increase in interest rates.
In the segment of corporate loans, the banks expect a further tightening of lending policy similarly to Q1 and a significant drop in demand for loans (especially long-term loans), except for short-term loans to large enterprises.
Banks’ forecasts regarding the demand for long-term corporate loans are pessimistic (-74% for large enterprises, -72% for SMEs). Short-term loan for large enterprises is the only loan category for which banks expect growing demand in Q2 2022 (58%).
In the segment of housing loans, the banks expect more than double tightening lending policy in the second quarter of 2022 and a continuation of the decline in demand.
Around 37% of banks are planning to tighten the criteria of lending policy in the segment of consumer loans against 21% of banks that are easing them. Similarly, in the case of demand forecasts – about 31% of banks expect growth against 25% forecasting its decline.
The survey was conducted at the beginning of April 2022 among 23 banks with a total share of claims on enterprises and households in the banking sector portfolio of around 88%.
Arkadiusz Słomczyński order