If Poland steps into a new role and becomes a sponsor of international aid instead of being a recipient of it, the total benefits for Poland’s economy during the reconstruction of Ukraine could amount to as much as 3.8 % of GDP and will be spread over at least a decade, according to economists of Bank Pekao S.A., who have prepared a report titled ‘The largest reconstruction in modern Europe – the challenges of post-war reconstruction of the Ukrainian economy’.

According to the authors of the report, the reconstruction of Ukraine will largely consist in the integration of its economy with the European Union, both in terms of infrastructure and regulation. Poland has been going through a similar process for two decades. So, it has gained a lot of experience in its planning, modernisation of infrastructure, harmonisation of laws, integration into EU supply chains. Polish public institutions and companies can share this experience and implementation potential with Ukraine, especially as its close neighbour.

In the opinion of specialists from Pekao S.A. bank. Poland could bring to Ukraine the necessary capital, know-how and experience gained over decades of the country’s civilisational development, as well as the favourable mix of competitive price and high quality that makes Polish products a good fit for Ukraine’s needs. This is especially true in sectors of the economy where Polish producers have complementary competencies to Ukrainian companies or can relatively easily fill the supply gap created by the war effort.

By helping Ukraine rebuild, Poland can gain PLN 32.5 billion, or 0.9 % of GDP, in direct benefits alone. In the longer term, Poland will also gain from Ukraine’s return “to a normal economic trajectory”. The benefits here are expected to amount to PLN 140-156 billion, or 2.7-2.9% of GDP, according to Pekao S.A. analysts.

The report, ‘The Largest Reconstruction of Modern Europe – the challenges of Post-War Reconstruction of the Ukrainian Economy’, was handed over to Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko on Monday 3 October.

Adrian Andrzejewski