The outbreak of the war in Ukraine turned on the already rocketing price carousel on the global market of agricultural products. We also feel the effects in our wallets. Shopping is becoming more and more expensive, but experts assure that there will be plenty of food in Poland.

Russia and Ukraine account for over 30% of the world wheat trade, 32% of barley turnover and 17% of corn. Both countries are among the leading exporters of oils, seeds and sunflower meals, which translates into over 50% of world turnover.

The data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development show that on February 20 this year one ton of wheat in Poland cost an average of PLN 1,260. On April 3, it was already PLN 1,569 per ton, which means an increase of over one fifth. For comparison, on April 4, 2021, the price was PLN 952.

Oil prices are breaking records. On April 3, one ton of refined rapeseed oil cost PLN 7205, compared to PLN 6373 per ton six weeks earlier. At the beginning of April 2021, the cost of a ton was PLN 4,097.

Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Henryk Kowalczyk, emphasizes that Polish food security is not threatened. “Food will be enough for both Poles and people who came to us from Ukraine”, comments the head of the Ministry of Agriculture.

However, due to the war in Ukraine, food prices are expected to rise both on international markets and in Poland. “Prices in Poland are following the global ones”, points out Henryk Kowalczyk.

“Poland has been a net exporter of cereals for years and the recent harvest has also been very good. The deteriorating food situation in the world means that more countries are looking for alternative markets both inside the European Union and, for example, in South America and the USA”, explains Monika Piątkowska. However, Poles should not be afraid that the majority of Polish grain will be exported abroad, and will not be available on the domestic market.

Bank Credit Agricole analysts indicate that the outbreak of the war in Ukraine intensified investors’ concerns about the global supply of grains in the coming quarters. The bank’s economists forecast that the prices of wheat and corn in Poland will amount to approximately PLN 1,400 and PLN 1,100 per ton at the end of 2022, and PLN 1,100 and PLN 950 per ton at the end of 2023, respectively. This is less than in the current “price list», however, the main risk factors for the forecast are the final impact of the war in Ukraine on the demand and supply situation in the world market.

Dominika Pietrzyk , business journalist at Infor order