The rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has maintained Poland’s rating at A-/A-2 for long- and short-term foreign currency obligations and A/A-1 for long- and short-term domestic currency obligations. In its assessment, the rating outlook remained stable.

S&P forecasts that the Polish economy will grow by 3.1 % in 2024, following growth of 0.6 % this year, due to a recovery in domestic consumption and easing weakness in Poland’s key trading partners. The agency expects unblocking access to European Union funds to boost investment growth next year and beyond, said the Finance Ministry.

The stable rating outlook balances short-term risks related to reduced external demand and loose domestic fiscal policy, with inflation still elevated, against moderate levels of fiscal and external debt, with prospects for an improvement in Poland’s relations with the EU.

According to the agency, Poland’s rating could be upgraded if sustained institutional and governance improvements are observed, which will also translate into a steady inflow of EU funds and foreign direct investment.

Negative pressure on the rating could emerge, in the agency’s view, due to a slower than current expectations pace of disinflation, as well as a weakening of the credibility of monetary policy, external competitiveness and economic growth.

Downward pressure on the rating could also emerge if Poland’s medium-term economic growth prospects were to weaken markedly, possibly including a resurgence of external shocks, including potentially from the unpredictable effects of Russia’s war with Ukraine, or as a result of prolonged economic weakness in key trading partners.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński