Paweł Borys, the president of the Polish Development Fund (PFR) emphasized that the Polish economy is immune to the direct effects of a possible conventional war in Ukraine. Poland has a positive trade balance with Ukraine, but its value of about USD 10 billion is not large from the perspective of the Polish economy with a GDP of over USD 600 billion. It is estimated that a possible war in Ukraine would lower the GDP growth rate by about 0.2-0.3%, assuming a decrease in trade turnover by half.

In the opinion of the president of PFR, indirect effects are already more dangerous for the economy. The hybrid war of Russia has resulted in higher electricity and gas bills.

In the last 12 months, gas prices on the European market have increased fivefold, and at some moments the increase was more than sevenfold. For years, Russia has been buying gas storage facilities in Germany and controlling gas transmission – explains Paweł Borys and adds that with the lower level of energy from renewable sources, it was enough to reduce gas reserves and the amount of transmission to cause panic before winter.

According to the president of PFR, there is a serious energy crisis in Europe, causing huge increases in energy prices for consumers and enterprises.

Increased inflation causes additional political instability, and the costs of fighting inflation, as in the case of oil crises, have their social costs and negatively influence the competitiveness of the economy.

The president of PFR states that over 80% of Europe’s energy consumption is based on gas or oil. Gas is the main energy carrier for industry and households, and oil is used in transport. 98% of crude oil and 92% of gas in the European Union is imported, mainly from Russia.

Adrian Andrzejewski