Scientists from the Jagiellonian University, the University of Białystok and the University of Adam Mickiewicz in Poznań determined that the death rate of the plague epidemic that attacked Europe, West Asia and North Africa in the years 1347–1352 was lower than previously thought.

The Black Death, which plagued Europe, West Asia and North Africa between 1347 and 1352, is considered the most terrible pandemic in history. It was the first wave of the so-called second plague pandemic. Historians have so far estimated that up to 50% of the population of Europe victims died. On this basis, they attributed the influence of the Black Death to the transformation of religious and political structures, and even the acceleration of major cultural and economic changes, such as the advent of the Renaissance or the rise of capitalism.

The study, published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, shows that the mortality from plague in Europe in the mid-14th century was not as widespread or as high as previously thought. The publication is the result of cooperation between an international team of researchers from the Palaeo-Science and History group at the Max Planck Institute in Jena and the Jagiellonian University in Krakow, the University of Adam Mickiewicz in Poznań and the University of Białystok.

Scientists analyzed pollen samples collected from 261 lakes and wetlands in 19 modern European countries. The aim of the research was to find out how landscapes and agricultural activity changed between 1250 and 1450, roughly 100 years before and 100 years after the pandemic. Research indicates that some areas suffered damage on an unprecedented scale, while others suffered much significantly less.

The sharp decline in agricultural production in Scandinavia, France, southwest Germany, Greece and central Italy confirms the high mortality rate, as evidenced by medieval historical and archaeological sources. Meanwhile, many regions, including most of Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Western Europe – Ireland and the Iberian Peninsula – show evidence of continuity or continued growth in the agricultural economy.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński