The Polish Economic Institute (PIE) estimates that in addition to direct involvement in reconstruction, the volume of Polish direct investment in Ukraine could increase to USD 30 billion in the next five years. The involvement will be visible in the energy sector, construction, parts of industry or financial services. The National Bank of Ukraine indicates that in 2021 direct investments from Poland would amount to USD 1.2 billion. This would represent an almost 30-fold increase.

Rebuilding Ukraine after the war will require the participation of Western countries. Current estimates are that over 100,000 square kilometres have been devastated. Civilian and energy infrastructure in particular has been destroyed. The Kyiv School of Economics indicates that total infrastructure losses amounted to US$136 billion. In contrast, the Ukrainian authorities and the European Investment Bank indicate that the total cost of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction projects will exceed US$1 trillion. The vast majority of the costs will be related to direct integration with European Union countries, including Poland.

The International Monetary Fund indicates that in September last year, the value of Polish exports to Ukraine was 46 % higher than in 2021, while imports were 23 % higher. This is the result of strong support in the form of arms exports and significant humanitarian aid to Ukraine. 

The National Bank of Poland reports that income from Polish direct investment in Ukraine rose to a record €130 million in 2021.

PIE experts recall that at the Lugano conference it was agreed that Poland and Italy would be responsible for the reconstruction of Donbas, one of the most devastated regions of Ukraine. Looking at the size of this part of Ukraine, development projects will account for about 15-20 per cent of the total size of the Reconstruction Plan, which represents a value in the order of USD 150-200 billion.

Adrian Andrzejewski