The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has released data on economic forecasts for Poland for 2023. The central bank has changed its expectations for economic growth, which is expected to be just 0.9 % this year. Analysts from rating agencies also spoke in a similar vein to the NBP.

Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) lowered its forecast for Poland’s economic growth to 0.9 % in 2023 from 1.2 % projected in September. At the same time, S&P forecasts that Poland’s economic growth will accelerate to 3.2 % in 2024.

“Our baseline assumption is a weak but still positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 0.9 % in 2023 against our previous forecast of 1.2 %. Once the external environment improves, the economy should regain momentum and we expect GDP growth to reach 3.2 % in 2024? says S&P report.

Fitch forecasts that GDP growth will slow to 1.1 % in 2023 from an estimated 5.7 % in 2022, due to a slowdown in economic activity in Poland’s main trading partners and domestic demand due to high inflation and slowing household lending.

“We expect the economy to recover in 2024, expanding by 2.6 %, supported by a strong labour market, public investment and a recovery in external demand, Fitch reports in a published report.

Also, according to rating agency Moody’s, Polish GDP will contract by 0.2 % year-on-year in 2023. According to Moody’s, the GDP contraction will be driven by a decline in domestic demand, while the troubles of Poland’s main trading partners will negatively affect the economy.

“While we expect Poland to post strong real GDP growth of 3.4 % in 2022, thanks to the effect of a strong start to the year, we have revised down our forecast for 2023, now revising the contraction to 0.2 %, compared to the 4 % growth projected before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”, Moody’s experts wrote.

Arkadiusz Slomczynski

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