According to the report of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), retail sales in September rose by 3.6 % year-on-year. In real terms, Poles bought slightly less than a year ago, but the data is still surprisingly positive compared to what analysts had expected. Retail sales at constant prices in September 2023 were 0.3 % lower than a year ago (compared to an increase of 4.1 % in September 2022).

“Negative retail sales dynamics still persist, but we seem to be close to moving into positive dynamics, which will mean real consumption growth. Disinflation is progressing with wages also starting to rise in real terms. I expect these trends to continue, which should translate into an increase in consumption in the following periods”, says Bartosz Walecki, analyst from Michael/Ström Dom Maklerski.

Analysts at bank PKO BP forecast that the following months will see increases in retail sales, and the revival of consumption will include more and more categories of goods. Wages in the economy have returned to real growth, which, with improving consumer sentiment and record low unemployment, will translate into strengthening consumption.

If inflation is not considered, Poles spent 12.8 % more in shops and car dealerships than a year ago, and 10.3 % more in specialised food shops (vegetable, meat). They spent 7.1 % more year-on-year in drugstores and pharmacies, while they limited our clothing purchases (-16.3 % y-o-y), purchases in press and bookshops (-16 % y-o-y) and in shops selling furniture, audiovisual equipment, and household appliances (-12.2 % y-o-y).

Additional support for consumer will come from the increase in parental benefit from the beginning of next year and another increase in the minimum wage. It was noted that parents and lower earners are characterised by a higher propensity to consume.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński