The Central Statistical Office (CSO) has presented possible scenarios and variants of the demographic future for Poland. In the main scenario, the office estimates that the number of Poles will fall from 37.7 to 30.4 million people.

The forecast was produced in three variants – the main scenario and the low and high scenarios. The low and high scenarios are prepared with a view to changing coefficients that could lead to a lower or higher projected population.

The results of the ‘Population Projection 2023-2060’ show a clear population loss by 2060. The scenarios predict that the decline will occur: to 30.4 million people (main scenario), to 26.7 million (low scenario) or to 34.8 million (high scenario).

The projections show that the ageing of Poland’s population will continue, which means an increase in the proportion of people aged 65 and over and a large decrease in the number of children and young people (0-17 years). Only in the high scenario is the number of people under 18 expected to remain at a level similar to 2022. The working-age population will shrink. According to the results of the forecast, this decline will range from 25 % in the low scenario to 40 % in the high scenario by 2060.

In addition to the high scenario, a marked decline in the birth rate is projected, which will be linked primarily to a decline in the number of women of reproductive age. Between 2022 and 2060, their number is projected to fall from 8.7 to 6.3 million in the high scenario and to 4.8 million in the low scenario.

Except for the low scenario, the CSO predicts a significant increase in immigration. In the medium and high scenarios, Poland will be an immigrant country throughout the projection horizon – a positive migration balance will be maintained between 2023 and 2060.

The forecast indicates a decrease in population in all voivodeships. The highest is forecast for the Świętokrzyskie voivodeship – by 2060, the number of inhabitants will have decreased by 30.6 %, and the lowest for the Mazowieckie and Pomorskie voivodeships – over 7 %.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński