According to economists at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), the PMI indices in Poland and Western Europe are close to the 50-point barrier, which signals economic growth, referring to the latest S&P Global index. The PMI index rose above market forecasts in February.
According to S&P Global on Wednesday, the PMI index for industry in Poland in February reached 48.5 points, up from 47.5 points in January.
“The situation of Polish industry is improving against the eurozone. In the West, entrepreneurs reported worsening activity ratings in February. Nevertheless, both in Poland and Western Europe the indices are close to the 50-point barrier, which is supposed to signal economic growth”, pointed out PIE economists.
The institute’s experts assessed that the slowdown in activity in the eurozone and Germany contributes to the weaker performance of the Polish economy. Nevertheless, industry continues to record growth.
“The Central Statistical Office’s (GUS) business climate surveys indicate that business sentiment has deteriorated only slightly. However, forecasts are less pessimistic”, they indicated.
The CSO predicts that the situation in industry will continue to be weak in the coming months. Assessment of the current situation of enterprises fell from -12.1 to -13 points, but forecasts for the next three months are clearly improving. The index reflecting assessments of future economic activity improved from -24.3 to -15 points, and forecasts for order portfolios from -18.6 to -7.7. The better results are linked to a smaller increase in costs with fewer companies reporting willingness to raise prices.
PIE economists pointed out that businesses are reporting less and less shortages of raw materials. At the same time, expectations for price increases are at their lowest level since September 2021. The PPI industrial production price index is also falling. According to the analysts, lower inflationary pressures will translate into more stable corporate performance and lower inflation will support improved economic activity in Europe.
Arkadiusz Słomczyński