The OECD has published its latest macroeconomic forecast, subtitled ‘Restoring Growth’, which assesses the global economic situation and details the situation of OECD member countries, including Poland.

In its latest projections, the OECD expects global GDP growth to slow from 2.9% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024, before picking up to 3% in 2025. The OECD expects the growing divergence between economies to continue, with growth in emerging market economies generally higher than in developed economies, and growth in Europe relatively modest compared to North America and the major Asian economies.

In contrast, inflation in G20 economies will continue to gradually decline to 5.8% and 3.8% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, from 6.2% in 2023. The OECD recommends that until inflation falls sustainably, monetary policy should remain restrictive until there are clear signs that inflationary pressures are permanently subdued and short-term inflation expectations ease further.

Global trade volumes will increase by 2.7% and 3.3% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, up from 1.1% in 2023, but this is only a modest cyclical increase that could be further dampened by a weaker investment outlook in advanced economies.

The OECD expects Poland’s economic recovery to be gradual. Declining inflation and decreasing uncertainty, accompanied by reduced interest rates, should support consumption growth even if the labour market deteriorates. Investment growth should remain steady, supported by improved growth prospects and the EU Reconstruction and Resilience Fund.

After slowing to 0.4% this year, the OECD forecasts that real GDP growth will rebound to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. Public debt is likely to rise to 56.4% of GDP over the next two years. The OECD expects inflation in Poland to be 4.7% in 2024 and to fall to 3.4% by the end of 2025.

Adrian Andrzejewski