The high demand for housing compared to the limited supply translates into a rapid increase in prices per square meter. According to JLL, a leading consulting company providing services on the real estate market, the growth in the six largest real estate markets in Poland amounted from 14 to even 21% in 2021.
Waldemar Wasiluk, Vice President of the Management Board of Victoria Dom SA, emphasizes that he is currently observing a modest cooling of the market due to the new price level that both developers and buyers will have to get used to. In his opinion, announced for the end of May, the government program “Apartment without own contribution” may have a stabilizing effect on the market.
In January and February, 47.7 thousand permits for flats or construction notifications were filed- by 5.8 thousand fewer than a year earlier. The construction of 29.7 thousand new premises was started, i.e. by 11.6% less. Developers have started the construction of 18.7 thousand flats – by 16.4 % less, compared to the same period last year.
According to the president of Victoria Dom, the falling supply of new projects is caused by economic factors, but also by the lack of building land and prolonged administrative processes. The war in Ukraine also inhibits activity instarting new projects.
Summarizing the real estate markets in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Tricity, Poznań and Łódź, the JLL report shows that last year developers launched for sale about 11,000 fewer flats than they sold. Such a large disproportion between supply and demand has not been recorded for almost a decade.
Wasiluk forecasts that from a long-term perspective, not only in terms of Poland’s market but also abroad, it seems that Poles will witness a still strong, growing market, with the prospect of stabilization in the next 6-12 months and probably a slight rebound in the future.
The new developer law entering into force on July 1, may also affect the increase in prices due to the contribution that developers will pay to the Development Guarantee Fund for each payment made to a housing escrow account.
The vice-president of Victoria Dom estimates that the Polish real estate market will be affected by the government program “Apartment without own contribution”, which starts at the end of May. Under the program, the state will guarantee its own contribution of up to 20 %, to 100,000 PLN for a minimum of 15 years, through the bank BGK.
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