On 22 November this year, the latest OECD Macroeconomic Outlook was published, presenting an assessment of the global economic situation and details the situation of OECD member countries, including Poland. The forecast predicts that Poland’s economic growth will be 0.9% in 2023, before reaching 2.4% in 2024.

“The Russian aggression against Ukraine brings much uncertainty to global markets. It brings challenges of unprecedented size for Europe, such as the energy crisis and persistent inflation”, comments Łukasz Czernicki, chief economist at the Ministry of Finance, who believes that given the difficult geopolitical environment, the stable foundations of the Polish economy and the good condition of public finances should be appreciated.

“In this period of challenges for the economy, it is important to pursue a responsible economic policy, mitigating the effects of high price dynamics, especially for the poorest, while keeping in mind the limitations on the budget side”, Czernicki adds.

The OECD expects real GDP growth in Poland to reach 0.9% in 2023 (2.4% in 2024). Inflation should peak in early 2023 but will likely remain above the inflation target throughout 2024.

The OECD notes that increased private consumption is not matched by an increase in industrial production or high levels of investment. Consumer and business confidence has declined and core inflation has reached 11.5%. The Polish labour market is in good shape and wage growth is noticeable. Experts are positive about the degree of diversification of energy supply sources achieved. They also draw attention to the impact on the economy of the presence in Poland of some 1.3 million Ukrainian refugees and the sharp decline in the volume of direct trade with Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, which before the war accounted for some 3-5% of GDP.

Adrian Andrzejewski