Allianz Trade has published its latest Global Insolvency Report and provided updated forecasts for 2024 and 2025. Poland is among the 26 countries that have seen double-digit growth in corporate insolvency in 2023, with 11 of these countries experiencing more than +30% growth in insolvency. 

Poland, with a 70% increase in insolvencies last year, was only overtaken by Hungary (+146% y-o-y). 

Despite the improved outlook, Allianz Trade expects economic growth to remain below the pre-pandemic trend and structural weaknesses (such as low profitability) to persist, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). All this means to expect only a slightly lower number of insolvencies: around 4,000 companies in 2024 (-10% y/y) and 3,450 cases in 2025 (-14%).

In Poland, so far it is mainly the smallest companies that are insolvent, and the primary reason is not late receivables (they are usually a secondary effect), but low profitability. SMEs are worst at adjusting the prices of their services or products to rising costs.

“The prevalence of insolvency in Poland translates into the threat of a domino effect – the cumulative scale of problems for small companies can also mean a challenge for the larger ones, which are their suppliers. Particularly as the trend towards a concentration and permanent reduction in the number of Polish firms may be real: the conditions for self-employment are no longer in place, on the contrary – the high demand for labour (record low unemployment, even in comparison with the EU) is conducive not only to raising salaries for salaried employees, but also to an increase in the burden of social contributions for SMEs. “Hence the record number of companies closing and suspending. In 2023 there were nearly 600,000 of them”, notes Sławomir Bąk, member of Allianz Trade’s management board in Poland for risk assessment, loss adjustment and recoveries.

Adrian Andrzejewski