The new Polish government has adopted the draft budget law for 2024 and the Public Finance Sector Debt Management Strategy for 2024-2027

The draft budget for 2024 assumes a forecast of state budget revenues of approximately PLN 682 billion, a limit on state budget expenditures of approximately PLN 866 billion, a state budget deficit of no more than PLN 184 billion, a public finance sector deficit (according to the EU methodology) of 5.1 % of GDP, a government debt according to the EU definition of 54.2 % of GDP.

“We created the draft budget submitted to the Council of Ministers under time pressure. It was prepared on the basis of the macroeconomic scenario contained in the draft budget law for 2024, which was adopted by the Council of Ministers on 28 September this year. The assumptions for the macroeconomic indicators for the financial year from the then draft are close to the current market consensus and forecasts from international institutions. In the near future, we will also take measures to increase the transparency of public finances”, said Finance Minister Andrzej Domański.

“In the adopted Strategy for Debt Management of the Public Finance Sector, we maintain the tasks related to the development of the financial market, i.e. ensuring liquidity, efficiency and transparency of the treasury securities market and effective management of state budget liquidity”, added Minister Andrzej Domański.

According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, in 2024 there will be an improvement in the dynamics of economic activity in Poland and GDP growth will accelerate to 3.0%, after its deterioration in the current year.

The increase in GDP dynamics in 2024 will be influenced by an increase in private consumption and an increase in investments.

Inflation is forecast to fall to 6.6% next year (annual average). One of the main factors for the evolution of inflation in 2024 will be changes in food and energy commodity prices on global markets.

In subsequent years, inflation is expected to fall further to 4.1% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.

Adrian Andrzejewski