Marcin Ociepa, deputy minister of national defense emphasizes that if the West makes further concessions to the Kremlin, for example, recognition of Crimea as Russian or the independence of some separatist republics, then the West will take a step back again, and Russia a step forward. Everybody wants peace, but that it would not resemble Chamberlain’s success in 1938, when the handing over of Czechoslovakia to Germany did not bring peace, but only increased the appetite and postponed the war in time.

The deputy head of the Ministry of Defense pointed out that for years “some people in the West have an extremely naive and dangerous approach that the truth lies in the middle and a compromise is needed. And the truth seldom lies in the middle”.

He recalled that the Russians were consistently building a narrative about the threat from the West. Meanwhile, Russia has been moving forward since 2008.

Ociepa has named Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea, Donbas as the most glaring examples, where Russia used its armed forces. Besides, they use special services and mercenaries all over the world: in Sahel, Transnistria, Moldova, attacks in London, Berlin, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, not to mention numerous cyber-attacks.

According to the deputy head of the Ministry of National Defense, it cannot be ruled out that Russian troops will no longer withdraw from Belarus. They will stay much closer to Poland, which will change its geopolitical situation. Perhaps this is one of the Russian scenarios assuming moving Russian troops closer to the West, to Poland and closer to Ukraine. Thus, Russians will be much better prepared for a possible offensive than they are now. “We are focusing on February 2022, but it may be that Russia will only practice certain scenarios, including logistics, and in a year or two it will work again, but much faster”, adds Deputy Minister Ociepa.

Adrian Andrzejewski