The preliminary estimates of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) informed that Poland’s GDP in 2021 increased by 5.7% and the Polish economy recovered from the pandemic 2020. This is the highest GDP growth since 2007.

In 2020, Poland’s GDP fell by 2.5%. ING Economics analysts, who forecast even 5.9% dynamics of the economy, indicate that the growth is strong; they estimated that in the fourth quarter the economy grew even at a rate of 7%. (year- to- year) which is a strong starting point for GDP in 2022.

Investments surprised positively reaching annual dynamics 8%. The result was also boosted by an unnaturally high increase in inventories. Jakub Rybacki, an analyst of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), in the Central Statistical Office data, estimates that it increased GDP by 1.8%.

An increase by 5.7% is identical to that achieved by the United States, and only Sweden and France (+7% y / y) and Italy (+ 6.3% y / y), as well as some Asian countries: the Philippines (+5.9 % y / y), Taiwan (+6.28%) and China (+8.1% y / y), can boast a higher dynamic of the economy.

According to most economists, it will be difficult to maintain such dynamics of GDP in 2022, and the Polish economy will slow down.

It is true that in the first quarter the growth rate should exceed 5%, but the increase in consumer spending is slowing down, and the rapid increase in the prices of building materials is starting to influence investments.

Weaker growth in domestic spending will be compensated by high foreign demand. Therefore, in the second quarter, GDP growth should be close to 4%, and in the entire 2022 to 4.3%.

Adrian Andrzejewski