According to the forecasts of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), Poland’s population will shrink significantly in a few decades. In 36 years, in 2060, there will be just under 33 million of us (today almost 37.7 million).

Apart from the negative natural growth, we will observe further unfavourable changes in the population structure by age and a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age.

The forecast shows that Polish society will be getting older. People over 65 will account for almost a third. The number of people aged 80 and over will also more than double.

At the same time, women of childbearing age (the range from 15 to 49 years), will account for only 71 % of the 2022 total in 2060. A decline in the number of mothers means fewer births. Over the next decade, the number will fall slightly from 304,000 births today to 287,000 in 2035. By 2060, only 248,000 babies will be born.

The Authority also expects a negative natural increase in each year. This means that there will be more deaths each year than births. This phenomenon will, unfortunately, intensify and in 2060 will reach -233.8 thousand. This means that in 2060, Poland will face almost half a million deaths per year, against 248 thousand births.

Poland is already undergoing the fastest population decline since the Second World War. A decrease in Poland’s resident population is projected for most provinces. A resident is defined as a person living in Poland for a minimum of one year.

“The Świętokrzyskie and Opolskie voivodeships will lose the most residents. Their population will decrease by 26 % compared to 2022, while the smallest losses will be in the Małopolskie and Pomorskie Voivodeships. Only the Mazowieckie Voivodeship will record an increase in population by 2060, but it will be insignificant, by ca. 2.1% compared to 2022”, predicts the CSO.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński