Piotr Arak, director of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) believes that Poland is next on Putin’s list. “This is the reason why the economic costs of the sanctions for the Polish economy and for the West are less important. Without them, the future of Poland is at risk. If we, that is the West, are not able to pay the tangible price for Ukraine’s independence, we will lose this fight”.
Piotr Arak notes, that the consequences of economic sanctions will impact the whole of Europe, but in the current situation it is the only effective way to stop the further escalation of the conflict in the East. The actual scale of the reaction of the European Union and the USA to the beginning of a conflict with Ukraine is still unknown, but as history shows, immediate and strong reactions are a necessity today.
Jacek Frączyk, Business Insider analyst emphasizes that the first visible effect of the entry of Russian troops into the separatist regions of Ukraine will be the increase in fuel prices in the coming days. It is expected that the price will exceed PLN 5.60 per liter.
Pegged to crude oil, gas prices will also increase, which will mean increases in heating charges. In Poland, over 11% of heat energy is produced directly from gas.
Possible hard sanctions against Russia may also result in gas shortages in Poland. Not only the power industry will suffer, but also the production of fertilizers. This will translate into agriculture production prices, Frączyk forecasts. Although Polish warehouses are filled with gas to a greater extent than a year ago, an alternative to Russian supplies will appear only with the launch of the Baltic Pipe at the end of this year.
Analysts also point to the costs of the potential migration of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, which may affect the domestic labor market and affect housing prices. Currently, over 2 million immigrants from Ukraine work in Poland.
Finally, the industries that may feel the imposition of sanctions against Russia in Poland include the following industries: machinery, automotive, chemical and road transport, which employs almost 390 thousand people. Poland is a transport power in Europe and Polish companies handle road transport between Russia and Western Europe. As a result of the blockade of transport to the East and back, many drivers could lose their jobs.
Adrian Andrzejewski