According to experts from ING Bank Śląski, Poland’s economic growth is expected to be close to 3 % in 2024. According to other economists, this year is likely to end even at a slightly higher level.

ING experts point to dynamic growth in real disposable income associated with lower inflation, dynamic growth in nominal wages. “As a result, we maintain our earlier forecast that consumption will be the main driver of GDP growth in 2024”, wrote the experts.

As a risk to economic growth, they cited a weak economic situation in the German economy, which, combined with a strong PLN and stronger price competition from Asian manufacturers, could translate into a deterioration of the foreign trade balance. 

ING experts citing a preliminary estimate from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) reported that Poland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.0 % year-on-year (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter, following a 0.5 per cent y-o-y increase in the third quarter. The flash reading confirms that the economy remains on the path of recovery, although its pace is slightly slower than earlier expectations. 

“Although we do not know the detailed data for the fourth quarter of 2023, on the basis of the previously published annual data, we estimate that the last quarter of last year saw household consumption growth decelerate to around zero (y-o-y). This was accompanied by a continuation of solid investment growth (ca. 7.6 % y-o-y), a positive contribution of the change in the foreign trade balance and a negative impact of the change in inventories.

According to experts from the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), international institutions and consensus commercial forecasts expect a significant acceleration of economic growth in Poland. Forecasts indicate around 2.8 % in 2024 and 3.3-3.4 % in 2025. Equally optimistic are economists from PKO Bank Polski who expect GDP growth to accelerate to 3.7 % from the 0.2 % recorded in 2023.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński