Inflation in Poland in September fell more sharply than expected, to 8.2 %m according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS). A single-digit result was achieved for the first time since February 2022. In the report, the CSO gave data on how prices had changed in several major categories of goods and services.

The latest inflation reading is the lowest since November 2021. Back then, there was a rise in the index, which reached 7.8 %. It is also worth noting that the last time it took single-digit figures was in February 2022 (8.5 %). Purchases are still much more expensive than a year ago, although a positive change can be seen over recent months.

Prices of consumer goods and services were on average 0.4 % lower in September 2023 than in August and 8.2 % higher than a year earlier, indicating a further deceleration in inflation. A month earlier, annual inflation was above 10 %. The rate is several times above the target levels (1.5-3.5 %) and higher than in most EU countries, but one can see light at the end of the tunnel.

Single-digit inflation was eagerly awaited by, among others, the President of the National Bank of Poland, who suggested that a result of around 8.5 % could be expected in September. It was precisely such inflation that was supposed to be the condition for the start of the interest rate cut series, but the first strong cut already took place at the beginning of September. Now the possibility of further cuts is opening wide, which should please, for example, persons repaying loans or planning to take out such a commitment.

Considering the impact of the main categories of goods and services on total prices in September, the greatest “merit” for the fall in inflation was attributable to fuels. They fell by an average of 7 % over the year. Compared to August, the reductions amount to 3 %.

The statistics are still inflated by the exceptionally rapid increase in the prices of foodstuffs (by 10.3 % year-on-year on average) and energy (9.9 %). In both cases, there were minimal reductions relative to August.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński