According to a quick estimate by the Central Statistical Office, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q2 2022 grew by 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared to a y-o-y growth of 8.5 % in Q1 2022. In quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP fell by 2. 3% in Q2.

According to economists at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), economic results in Q2 continued to be strong, but the second half of the year will bring a slowdown. Experts predict that the overall growth rate in 2022 will be high compared to the European Union.

In their view, the following quarters will bring a noticeable slowdown – they expect the output in Q3 to be close to 3 %. As they reported, the monthly information shows that the industry is performing relatively well. However, there is a noticeable slowdown in construction and stagnation in trade.

“We forecast that economic growth for the whole of 2022 will slightly exceed 4.5%, which is a good result compared to the European Union countries”, PIE analysts reported. They noted that according to European Commission estimates Poland will belong to the five fastest-growing economies in the Community.

ING Bank Śląski senior economist Piotr Popławski notes that a technical recession (a drop in GDP in two consecutive quarters) is becoming likely.

“The components of GDP will not be known until the end of August, but investment and net exports are likely to have performed poorly. Consumption remains high, but this is largely due to the influx of over 2 million refugees from Ukraine”, stated Poplawski.

According to the bank analyst, retail sales data generally show weaker demand for durable goods and strong demand for necessities.

“Today’s reading, as well as incoming data e.g. from Germany, significantly raise the risk that the y-o-y GDP dynamics will fall below zero in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023”, said the economist.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński