According to the Credit Information Bureau (BIK), a total of 23.820 potential borrowers applied for a housing loan in May this year, which means a decrease of 50.6% (year on year). The average value of the requested housing loan in May this year was 343.890 PLN and was higher by 2.9% y / y and lower by 2.8% than in April this year.

The value of BIK Index of Demand for Housing Loans (BIK Index – PKM) informs the public about the annual dynamics of the value of requested housing loans. The current result means that in May 2022, banks and credit unions sent housing loans inquiries to BIK for an amount lower by 51.6%, compared to May 2021 (per business day).

“The forecasts for the May BIK Demand Index for housing loans, unfortunately, have come true. Demand is falling into the abyss. And the explanation of the March anomaly, the increase in the value of the Index by 4.3% as a result of new stricter requirements of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority regarding the calculation of creditworthiness, was appropriate. The current index reading in May is another confirmation of a very large cooling down in the housing loan market in the following quarters of the year. The May value of the Index is the lowest in the history of measurement since January 2008, i.e. for 14 years”, comments the chief analyst of BIK, Waldemar Rogowski.

In his opinion, the May value of the Index was negatively affected by the number of applicants, which was 50% lower than in the previous year. It is the lowest number since January 2007, i.e. for 15 years, since BIK has analyzed the number of applicants.

“It should be remembered that the number of people applying for a housing loan has been falling regularly since April 2021. Unfortunately, I am afraid that the number of applicants will fall further in the coming months”, predicts the analyst.

Rogowski noted that the value of demand for housing loans in the coming months will be primarily influenced by the monetary policy. Its further tightening and an increase in interest rates will further reduce the creditworthiness of potential borrowers, and thus significantly weaken the demand for housing loans.

The BIK Index – PKM is calculated per business day, excluding inquiries about housing loans for amounts exceeding PLN 10 million and inquiries from the same client in the next 90 days. The index methodology was developed by BIK in cooperation with the Institute of Economic Development of the Warsaw School of Economics. The index is published monthly.

Arkadiusz Słomczyński order