According to the Macroeconomic monthly journal of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) in February 2022, sales of mortgage loans were lower than the average monthly in 2019. Combined with rising housing prices, they have cooled down the real estate market. Currently, the mortgage loan allows buyers to purchase 34% less floor space than in 2019.

PIE analysts predict, that the increase in interest rates and the new regulations of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) will additionally limit the granting of new loans in the coming months.

This is confirmed by the data from the latest credit newsletter of the Credit Information Bureau (BIK). In March 2022, the number of loans granted decreased by as much as 27.2% in the housing loan market, compared to March last year. In March 2022, the average value of a housing loan granted was PLN 345.020 PLN and was higher on an annual basis by 12.2%. According to BIK, it corresponds approximately to the average annual dynamics of real estate prices.

The value of mortgage loans has been falling since last October. In February, it fell to PLN 5.1 billion – less than in 2019 (5.4 billion).

Narodowy Bank Polski NBP indicates that housing prices have increased by 37% since the first quarter of 2019. Mortgage loans granted in February 2022 allow buying 34% less floor space than in 2019.

Rate increases hit primarily poorer borrowers. In February 2022, banks granted 14.900 mortgage loans, i.e. by 11% less than in 2019 and by 24% less than in 2020 and 2021 respectively.

Increases in interest rates reduced creditworthiness. In addition, the activities of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority will also have a negative impact on creditworthiness. On February 24, another element appeared – the war in Ukraine. “This factor introduces uncertainty, and banks in such conditions usually have a more restrictive approach to granting loans, in particular, long-term credits”, emphasizes the main analyst of BIK, Waldemar Rogowski.

Adrian Andrzejewski order