The influx of people from Ukraine has had a big impact on the real estate market. About 2.3 million refugees have arrived in Poland in just over a month since the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The Polish Economic Institute analyzed data from one of the two largest websites in Poland, Otodom.pl.
Since the beginning of the war, there has been a clear decline in the number of active advertisements for apartments for rent in Ukraine. From January to the beginning of the third decade of February, the number of advertisements remained more or less unchanged, while the following weeks saw a rapid decline.
Taking into account the 18 largest Polish cities, the largest decrease in the number of active advertisements in the period between February 21 and March 29 was recorded in several cities. In Gorzów Wlkp. it fell by 82%: from 62 to 11, respectively, in Wrocław – by 78% (from 1392 to 304), in Krakow, by 74% (from 1969 to 515) and in Gdańsk and Lublin by 71% (from 647 to 186 and from 292 to 85 respectively).
In Warsaw, the decrease was 61% (from 5468 to 2137). In the other capitals of provinces it was 46% in Białystok and 66% in Zielona Góra. The exception is Olsztyn, where the number of offers remained the same.
The slightly reduced percentage of active advertisements from voivodship cities in relation to the rest of the country in March proves unequal interest in apartments for rent. Those located in large urban centers are more desirable.
At the beginning of March, compared to the end of February, the number of rent advertisements on Otodom.pl. increased by 166%, and on the website olx.pl by 114%. The growing demand and limiting the supply of apartments for rent has resulted in an increase in prices.
In the second half of March, fewer and fewer people from Ukraine crossed the border with Poland. This allows experts to assume that the situation in the flat rental market should stabilize. This is evidenced by the decreasing dynamics of the decline in the number of active advertisements. However, the uncertainty about the future situation in Ukraine is high and a further increase in the number of people fleeing the war cannot be ruled out.
An effective way to mitigate possible refugee crises is to implement a plan to build temporary housing. A good solution may also be governmental funding for municipalities that will invest in the construction of housing for refugees.
Arkadiusz Słomczyński order