{"id":56113,"date":"2024-01-26T13:32:41","date_gmt":"2024-01-26T12:32:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dignitynews.eu\/?p=56113"},"modified":"2024-01-26T13:32:41","modified_gmt":"2024-01-26T12:32:41","slug":"analitycy-banku-goldman-sachs-wierza-w-polska-gospodarke","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dignitynews.eu\/pl\/analitycy-banku-goldman-sachs-wierza-w-polska-gospodarke\/","title":{"rendered":"Analitycy banku Goldman Sachs wierz\u0105 w polsk\u0105 gospodark\u0119"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5><strong>PKB w Polsce przyspieszy do 4,2% r\/r (rok do roku) w 2024 r. z 0,7% r\/r w roku ubieg\u0142ym &#8211; prognozuje\u00a0Goldman Sachs, kt\u00f3ry w swojej najnowszej analizie zak\u0142ada dla Polski aktywno\u015b\u0107 gospodarcz\u0105 w 2024 r. powy\u017cej konsensusu, inflacj\u0119 poni\u017cej konsensusu i spadek st\u00f3p procentowych. <\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>Po s\u0142abym 2023 r. oczekujemy, \u017ce w 2024 r. PKB Polski wzro\u015bnie o ponad konsensus 4,2% w 2024 r. (konsensus = 2,8%), w miar\u0119 wygasania oporu wynikaj\u0105cego z restrykcyjnych warunk\u00f3w finansowych i (wcze\u015bniej) wysokich poziom\u00f3w cen surowc\u00f3w. Wzrost przyspieszy\u0142 w uj\u0119ciu sekwencyjnym w drugiej po\u0142owie 2023 r. i wydaje si\u0119, \u017ce dynamika ta zosta\u0142a przeniesiona na 2024 r.: nasz wska\u017anik bie\u017c\u0105cej aktywno\u015bci (CAI) jest zbli\u017cony do potencjalnego tempa wzrostu Polski (3,4% r\/r, wed\u0142ug naszych szacunk\u00f3w) \u2013 czytamy w raporcie banku Goldman Sachs \u201eCEEMEA Economics Analyst Poland \u2013 Assessing Inflation and Fiscal Risks\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomi\u015bci banku oceniaj\u0105, \u017ce termin zniesienia zerowej stawki VAT w III kw. br. jest prawdopodobny, natomiast termin zniesienia limitu cen energii jest trudniejszy do przewidzenia.<\/p>\n<p>Pomimo znacznych dla rz\u0105du koszt\u00f3w programu zamro\u017conych cen energii, zdaniem analityk\u00f3w banku, usuni\u0119cie programu mo\u017ce zosta\u0107 op\u00f3\u017anione do 2025 r.<\/p>\n<p>Analitycy podkre\u015blaj\u0105, \u017ce \u201eop\u00f3\u017anienie zniesienia limitu cen energii do przysz\u0142ego roku zwi\u0119kszy\u0142oby prawdopodobie\u0144stwo obni\u017cek st\u00f3p procentowych przez NBP\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs szacuje \u015brednioroczn\u0105 inflacj\u0119 w br. na poziomie 3,7% wobec 11,4% w ub.r., a nast\u0119pnie 4% w 2025 r. i 2,8% w 2026 r. Bank prognozuje przyspieszenie aktywno\u015bci gospodarczej do 5% w 2025 r. i spowolnienie dynamiki wzrostu do 3,8% w 2026 r.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomi\u015bci spodziewaj\u0105 si\u0119 obni\u017cki stopy referencyjnej do 4% w br. z obecnego poziomu 5,75%.<\/p>\n<p>Adrian Andrzejewski<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PKB w Polsce przyspieszy do 4,2% r\/r (rok do roku) w 2024 r. z 0,7% r\/r w roku ubieg\u0142ym &#8211; prognozuje\u00a0Goldman Sachs, kt\u00f3ry w swojej najnowszej analizie zak\u0142ada dla Polski&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":56114,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gospodarka"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Analitycy banku Goldman Sachs wierz\u0105 w polsk\u0105 gospodark\u0119 - Godno\u015b\u0107 - DignityNews.eu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dignitynews.eu\/pl\/analitycy-banku-goldman-sachs-wierza-w-polska-gospodarke\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pl_PL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analitycy banku Goldman Sachs wierz\u0105 w polsk\u0105 gospodark\u0119 - Godno\u015b\u0107 - DignityNews.eu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"PKB w Polsce przyspieszy do 4,2% r\/r (rok do roku) w 2024 r. z 0,7% r\/r w roku ubieg\u0142ym &#8211; 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